gscienceMining Science and Technology (Russia)Горные науки и технологии2500-0632The National University of Science and Technology MISiIS (NUST MISIS)10.17073/2500-0632-2025-08-1020gscience-1020Research ArticleGEOLOGY OF MINERAL DEPOSITSГЕОЛОГИЯ МЕСТОРОЖДЕНИЙ ПОЛЕЗНЫХ ИСКОПАЕМЫХGlobal zirconium market as a critical mineral raw materialМировой рынок циркония – критического минерального сырьяhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0715-7807БояркоГ. Ю.BoyarkoG. Yu.

Григорий Юрьевич Боярко – доктор экономических наук, кандидат геолого-минералогических наук, профессор отделения нефтегазового дела

г. Томск

Scopus ID 56350674500

SPIN 8069-7686

Grigory Yu. Boyarko – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Cand. Sci. (Geol. and Min.), Professor of the Oil and Gas Engineering Department

Tomsk

Scopus ID 56350674500

gub@tpu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1499-8970БолсуновскаяЛ. М.BolsunovskayaL. M.

Людмила Михайловна Болсуновская – кандидат филологических наук, доцент отделения иностранных языков школы общественных наук

г. Томск

Scopus ID 56350747600

SPIN 2542-1748

Liudmila M. Bolsunovskaya – Cand. Sci. (Philolog.), Associate Professor of the Foreign Languages Department, School of Social Sciences

Tomsk

Scopus ID 56350747600

SPIN 2542-1748

bolsunovskl@tpu.ruНациональный исследовательский Томский политехнический университетРоссияNational Research Tomsk Polytechnic UniversityRussian Federation2026200420261111634Copyright © Boyarko G.Y., Bolsunovskaya L.M., 20262026Боярко Г.Ю., Болсуновская Л.М.Boyarko G.Y., Bolsunovskaya L.M.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://mst.misis.ru/jour/article/view/1020

This study addresses the growing recognition of zirconium raw materials as a critical mineral resource in most industrialized countries and the need for a comprehensive assessment of the complex global zirconium market. Using statistical, graphical, and analytical methods, the study examines the zirconium resource base, the spatial distribution of zirconium deposits by geological type, global commodity flows (production, imports, exports, and consumption) by country, as well as prices and future production and consumption trends. The analysis shows that global consumption of zirconium raw materials has increased rapidly, from 39 kt in 1950 to 2.191 Mt in 2024. The main demand-side trend is the sharp rise in consumption in China, driven by rapid economic growth: from 84 kt (8.7% of the global market) in 1997 to 1.83 Mt (78%) in 2024. At the same time, growth of the global zirconium raw materials market is constrained by rising demand and prices, the high share of international trade, and conflicting interests between producing countries (Australia, South Africa, Mozambique, Indonesia, and Senegal) and the major consuming countries (China, the European Union, the United States, India, and Japan). Another major challenge is that a significant share of global reserves is located in complex endogenic deposits that are difficult to develop both technologically and economically. In most industrialized countries, zirconium is classified as a critical mineral resource. Global proven reserves of zirconium raw materials in developed deposits are estimated at 95 Mt, while forecast resources amount to 232 Mt. Production is currently concentrated mainly in titanium-zirconium placer deposits; however, zirconium also occurs in complex endogenic deposits in carbonatites and alkaline igneous rocks in the form of zircon, baddeleyite, and eudialyte. Global production of zircon concentrate increased from 537 kt in 1970 to 1.64 Mt in 2024 (+2.4% per year), while cumulative global production for 1950–2024 reached 59.7 Mt. Export supply of zircon concentrate to the global market, including re-exports, increased from 395 kt in 1970 to 1.86 Mt in 2024. In the 2010s, the share of exports in global zirconium raw material production ranged from 61% to 98%. High demand led to the emergence of a new group of producers developing placer deposits in Indonesia, Mozambique, Senegal, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Kenya, Vietnam, and Sierra Leone. Their share of global exports increased from 0.2% in 1999 to 30% in 2024. Production from placer deposits may increase significantly in Mozambique, Madagascar, and Vietnam, while new mining operations may also emerge in Namibia and Tanzania. In addition to placer deposits, projects are being considered for the development of complex endogenic deposits in which zircon concentrate would be produced as a by-product, including Strange Lake and Thor Lake (Canada), Bear Lodge (USA), Baerzhe, Bozigor, and Tudiling (China), Khalzan-Buregtei (Mongolia), and Katuginskoye, Ulug-Tanzekskoye, and Zashikhinskoye (Russia). Development of deposits representing a new technological type—eudialyte ores, which constitute complex zirconium–rare-earth raw materials, is also possible. These projects include Nechalacho (Canada), Tanbreez–Kvanefjeld (Greenland), Toongi–Dubbo (Australia), Lovozerskoye (Russia), and Saima (China).

Актуальность работы обусловлена статусом циркониевого сырья как критического минерального сырья, принятым в большинстве промышленно-развитых стран, и необходимостью получения максимально полной картины его сложного мирового рынка. На основе статистического, графического и логического методов проведено изучение минерально-сырьевой базы циркониевого сырья, пространственного размещения месторождений циркония по типам геологических формаций, динамики товарных потоков (производства, импорта, экспорта, потребления) по странам мира, а также мировых цен и перспектив добычи и потребления. Анализ показал, что мировое потребление циркониевого сырья стремительно растет – с 39 тыс. т в 1950 г. до 2,191 млн т в 2024 г. В динамике спроса главным является тренд его взрывного роста в Китае на фоне стремительного подъема национальной экономики: с 84 тыс. т (8,7 % от объемов мирового рынка) в 1997 г. до 1,83 млн т (78 %) в 2024 г. Развитие мирового рынка предложения циркониевого сырья при этом осложняется ростом объемов спроса и цен, значительной долей международной торговли при наличии противоречий интересов добывающих стран (Австралия, ЮАР, Мозамбик, Индонезия, Сенегал) и главных стран-потребителей (Китай, Евросоюз, США, Индия, Япония), а также нахождением значительной доли мировых запасов в комплексных эндогенных месторождениях, сложных для освоения как по технологическим, так и экономическим причинам. В большинстве промышленно-развитых стран цирконий рассматривается как критическое минеральное сырье. Мировые запасы циркониевого сырья в подготовленных для эксплуатации месторождениях оцениваются в 95 млн т, прогнозные ресурсы – в 232 млн т. В разработке находятся преимущественно месторождения титан-циркониевой россыпной формации, однако цирконий также присутствует в комплексных эндогенных месторождениях в карбонатитах и щелочных магматических породах в виде циркона, бадделеита и эвдиалита. Мировое производство цирконового концентрата выросло с 537 тыс. т в 1970 г. до 1,64 млн т в 2024 г. (+2,4 %/год), а накопленная мировая добыча за 1950–2024 гг. составила 59,7 млн т. Экспортное предложение цирконового концентрата на мировой рынок (включая реэкспорт) увеличилось с 395 тыс. т в 1970 г. до 1,86 млн т в 2024 г. При этом в 2010-е годы доля экспорта в мировой добыче циркониевого сырья составляла от 61 до 98 %. Высокий спрос привел к появлению на рынке пула новых производителей, разрабатывающих россыпные месторождения в Индонезии, Мозамбике, Сенегале, Казахстане, Мадагаскаре, Кении, Вьетнаме и Сьерра-Леоне. Их доля в мировом экспорте увеличилась с 0,2 % в 1999 г. до 30 % в 2024 г. В перспективе возможно значительное увеличение объемов добычи из россыпей в Мозамбике, Мадагаскаре, Вьетнаме, а также появление новых производств в Намибии и Танзании. Наряду с россыпными существуют проекты разработки комплексных эндогенных месторождений с получением цирконового концентрата: Стрейндж-Лейк и Тхор-Лэйк (Канада), Беар-Лодж (США), Балже, Бозигор и Тудилинг (Китай), Халзан-Бурегте (Монголия), Катугинское, Улуг-Танзегское и Зашихинское (Россия). Возможна также разработка месторождений нового технологического типа – эвдиалитовых руд, представляющих собой комплексное цирконий-редкоземельное сырье: Нечалачо (Канада), Танбриз-Кванефьелд (Гренландия), Тунги-Дуббо (Австралия), Ловозерское-эвдиалитовое (Россия) и Саима (Китай).

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.